TERRAPUB Earth, Planets and Space

Earth Planets Space, Vol. 64 (No. 8), pp. 661-671, 2012

CSEP Testing Center and the first results of the earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan

H. Tsuruoka1, N. Hirata1, D. Schorlemmer3,2, F. Euchner4, K. Z. Nanjo5,1, and T. H. Jordan2

1Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
2Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
3GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany
4Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
5National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan

(Received February 4, 2011; Revised May 7, 2012; Accepted June 20, 2012; Online published August 27, 2012)

Abstract: Major objectives of the Japanese earthquake prediction research program for the period 2009-2013 are to create earthquake forecasting models and begin the prospective testing of these models against recorded seismicity. For this purpose, the Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo has joined an international partnership to create a Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Here, we describe a new infrastructure for developing and evaluating forecasting models—the CSEP Japan Testing Center—as well as some preliminary testing results. On 1 November 2009, the Testing Center started a prospective and competitive earthquake predictability experiment using the seismically active and well-instrumented region of Japan as a natural laboratory.
Key words: Earthquake forecasting and testing, statistical seismology, seismic hazard, Japan.

Corresponding author E-mail: tsuru@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp

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