TERRAPUB Earth, Planets and Space

Earth Planets Space, Vol. 63 (No. 3), pp. 217-229, 2011

Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity

Yosihiko Ogata

The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Midori-cho 19-3, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan

(Received June 4, 2010; Revised September 6, 2010; Accepted September 7, 2010; Online published March 4, 2011)

Abstract: The space-time version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for earthquake clustering. For more accurate seismic prediction, we modify it to deal with not only anisotropic clustering but also regionally distinct characteristics of seismicity. The former needs a quasi-real-time cluster analysis that identifies the aftershock centroids and correlation coefficient of a cluster distribution. The latter needs the space-time ETAS model with location dependent parameters. Together with the Gutenberg-Richter's magnitude-frequency law with location-dependent b-values, the elaborated model is applied for short-term, intermediate-term and long-term forecasting of baseline seismic activity.
Key words: Anisotropic clusters, Bayesian method, b-values, Delaunay tessellation, location dependent parameters, probability forecasting.

Corresponding author E-mail: ogata@ism.ac.jp

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