TERRAPUB Earth, Planets and Space

Earth Planets Space, Vol. 57 (No. 3), pp. 215-230, 2005

Distinguished seismological and electromagnetic features of the impending global failure: Did the 7/9/1999 M5.9 Athens earthquake come with a warning?

Panayiotis Kapiris1, Konstantinos Nomicos2, George Antonopoulos1, John Polygiannakis1, Konstantinos Karamanos3, John Kopanas1, Athanassios Zissos4, Athanassios Peratzakis1, and Konstantinos Eftaxias1

1Department of Physics, University of Athens, Greece
2Technological Educational Institute of Athens, Greece
3Centre for Nonlinear Phenomena and Complex Systems, Universit Libre de Bruxelles
4Technological Educational Institute of Piraeus, Greece

(Received March 14, 2003; Revised December 29, 2004; Accepted January 15, 2005)

Abstract: Clear VLF electromagnetic (EM) anomalies were detected prior to the Athens earthquake (EQ). We attempt to establish the hypothesis that these emissions were launched from the pre-focal area during micro-fracturing process. The spectral analysis in terms of fractal dynamics reveals that distinquished alterations in the associated scaling parameters emerge as the EQ is approached. These alterations suggests that the evolution of the Earthfs crust towards the gcritical pointh takes place not only in the seismological sense but also in the pre-fracture EM sense. VAN-signals and space-time TIR-signals were also detected prior to the Athens EQ. These anomalies, as well as the fault modeling of the Athens EQ obtained by interferometric combinations of ERS2 SAR images bring further support for the confidence in the reliability of our conclusions.
Key words: Earthquake prediction, wavelet analysis, intermittent criticality, electromagnetic emissions, Athens earthquake, fracture, scaling laws, fault nucleation

Corresponding author E-mail: pkapiris@cc.uoa.gr

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